Economic policy uncertainty and allocative distortions

Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level uncertainty depresses firms’ investment decisions. When firms are in doubt about costs of doing business due to possible changes in regulation, cost of health care and taxes, they become more guarded with investmen...

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations

We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data favors a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and t...

Economic Policy Uncertainty & Asset Price Volatility∗

We document that fear about misspecified economic and central bank policies explain 45% of variations in bond option implied volatilities and interest rate volatilities. We endogenize this empirical pattern with a parsimonious equilibrium asset pricing model. In equilibrium, volatility is endogenously driven by fear of not knowing the data generating process that drives future economic and futu...

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a

The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty

Using the Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2013) news-based measure to capture economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States, we find that EPU positively forecasts log excess market returns. A one-standard deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.5% increase in forecasted 3-month abnormal returns (6.1% annualized). Furthermore, innovations in EPU earn a significant negative risk premiu...